Mideast growth defies global recession fears

The global economy teeters on the edge of a recession, with UN Trade and Development (Unctad) forecasting a mere 2.3 per cent growth in world gross product for 2025, below the 2.5 per cent threshold signalling a recessionary phase.

- Issac John

The agency’s latest “Trade and development foresights 2025” report paints a grim picture of escalating trade tensions, unprecedented policy uncertainty, and disrupted supply chains triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff barrage. However, the Middle East emerges as a symbol of resilience, with Unctad projecting 3.2 per cent regional growth, driven by rising oil production and strategic economic policies, despite the ongoing Gaza conflict’s ripple effects.

However, the Middle East’s economic buoyancy contrasts sharply with the global slowdown, which marks a significant deceleration from pre-pandemic averages.

The UAE, a regional powerhouse and the Arab world’s second-largest economy, is expected to grow by 3.8 per cent, per World Bank forecasts, driven by tourism, real estate, and financial services. Saudi Arabia, the largest Arab economy, leads the region with a projected 3.5 per cent expansion in 2025, fuelled by increased oil output under Opec+ agreements.

The kingdom's Vision 2030 diversification efforts, including $1 trillion in non-oil projects, bolster growth, with the IMF estimating non-oil GDP growth at 4.5 percent in 2024.

Qatar’s LNG expansion further supports the region’s outlook, with a projected 2.8 per cent growth.