GCC set to outpace global growth

The GCC is poised to defy a weak global outlook, with regional growth set to nearly double that of the rest of the world this year.

- Issac John [e-mail]

Towers in Dubai. In the first quarter of 2025, the UAE economy grew 3.9 per cent year on year, underpinned by a 5.3 per cent rise in non-oil activity.

According to the ICAEW's Economic Insight Q3 2025 report, produced in collaboration with Oxford Economics, the GCC is on track for 4.1 per cent growth in 2025, speeding up to 4.6 per cent in 2026 — even as global GDP expansion slows to 2.7 per cent.

That outperformance is largely anchored in surging oil output. The report notes that Opec+ began unwinding production cuts ahead of plan in April, aiming to restore roughly 2.5 million barrels per day by end-October. This resumption of supply has lifted energy-sector growth projections to 4.9 per cent in 2025 and 6.0 per cent in 2026.

The lion’s share of spare capacity lies in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, making those economies principal beneficiaries.

The stronger story lies in non-oil momentum. Non-energy sectors across the GCC are forecast to expand 4.0 per cent this year, buoyed by tight labour markets, robust consumer confidence, and ongoing efforts to diversify.