What changed between LS, state polls

One of the biggest surprises in the Maharashtra elections is the complete political turnaround between the 2024 Lok Sabha and assembly elections.

- Nishant Ranjan and Roshan Kishore

The Maharashtra Vikas Agadi (MVA) won 30 out of the 48 parliamentary constituencies (PCs) in the state in the Lok Sabha elections. It has won just 49 out of the 288 assembly constituencies (ACs) in the assembly elections. What explains this?

We had already pointed out in these pages that the Lok Sabha seat share was not useful in understanding the nature of the contest in the assembly elections in the state. Vote share of the MVA and the Mahayuti was much closer even in the Lok Sabha, the respective numbers being 43.9% and 43.5%. In fact, even the seat share gap, once broken down at the AC-level was much smaller than the PC-wise numbers.

The biggest factor behind the assembly election results is the Mahayuti taking a massive lead in terms of vote share over the MVA, the respective numbers being 51.3% and 35.4% respectively. What created this vote share gap between the two alliances?