El Nino to intensify rapidly by Sept, set off weather chaos

El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event between July and September, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Friday, raising the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall across large parts of the world.

- Jasjeev Gandhiok

The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update said multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global producing centres show consistent, significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions.

El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern marked by above-average sea-surface temperatures in this region; it typically develops between March and June, peaks between November and February, and exerts its strongest influence on global temperatures the year following its onset. Events usually occur every two to seven years and last nine to twelve months.

In India, it is linked to a weaker monsoon. Officials at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the warning changes nothing — the strengthening was already built into its monsoon forecast weeks ago.

“El Nino conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event... This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

She added that the WMO community had “launched an unprecedented mobilisation to coordinate activities across the United Nations and at regional level to support governments, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors,” calling advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings vital to saving lives and cushioning economic impact.