Normal Monsoon Likely, in Relief for Cultivators

The monsoon season this year is likely to be in the normal category, private forecaster Skymet Weather said on Tuesday, an early projection that augurs well for India's agrarian heartland and broader macroeconomic stability—both inextricably tethered to the four-month seasonal rainfall that serves as the lifeblood for millions of rural livelihoods.

- Jayashree Nandi

NEW DELHI:

The season is expected to lead to 103% (±5%) of the long period average (LPA) amount of rain. Last year's monsoon was above normal at 108% of the LPA, though the nationwide figure typically masks significant regional variations with some areas experiencing flooding and others facing deficits.

The LPA for 1971-2020 period is 87 cm, with a "normal" monsoon range defined as 96-104% of LPA. According to Skymet, there is a 40% chance of normal monsoon, 30% chance of above normal, 15% chance of below normal, and 5% chance of drought.