Mandal 2.0: Caste count to set stage for another churn in U.P. politics?

The new exercise could lead to the firming up of or redrawing of strategy by parties which expect a keen poll battle in Uttar Pradesh where the next assembly elections are due in 2027. Previous mini-surveys have put the OBC population in the state at over 50%.

- Brajendra K Parashar

LUCKNOW: Slogans often define the politics of the times and a state. In Uttar Pradesh, the catch phrase, 'Jiski jitni sankhya bhari, uski utni hissedari (proportionate share according to population), has been symbolic of the dominance of caste as a factor in almost every election.

Over the years, the state has witnessed a few mini caste surveys though, officially, the nationwide caste count to be done with the upcoming national census now will be the first such pan-India exercise since 1931.

Vociferously demanded by the Opposition and initially opposed by the BJP, caste enumeration has been accepted by the ruling party, setting the stage for a churn over three decades after the Mandal commission recommendations changed the political discourse.

The new exercise could lead to the firming up of or redrawing of strategy by parties which expect a keen poll battle in Uttar Pradesh where the next assembly elections are due in 2027 and where previous mini-surveys have put the OBC population at over 50%. The caste enumeration is likely to be completed in 2026.

Political observers note that after Bihar, where the Nitish Kumar-led government conducted a caste-based survey in 2023, Uttar Pradesh will be the next decisive state where such data could significantly influence electoral strategies.

Indeed, the Modi government's sudden decision to enumerate caste along with the national census in the country, is expected to significantly shape electoral narratives in a state like U.P. that is often described as India's "caste cauldron" for its deeply entrenched and electorally decisive caste identities.

Past efforts in Uttar Pradesh offer some insights on the caste numbers in the state.

"Previous caste surveys have put the OBC population in the state at around 54% of the total," said Jai Singh, a research officer in the Uttar Pradesh State Commission for Backward Classes.