A WORLD LESS PREDICTABLE

In a year shaped by Trump's return, regional conflicts and neighbourhood upheaval, India found itself dealing with an international order that offered fewer certainties and thinner trust

- Rezaul H Laskar

India’s foreign policy firmament faced some of its strongest challenges in recent years in 2025, ranging from a four-day conflict with Pakistan to a rapid downturn in India-US relations over President Donald Trump's whimsical policies, and upheaval in neighbouring Bangladesh and Nepal with far-reaching impacts on bilateral ties.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first few world leaders to visit Washington in February after the inauguration of Trump's second term and the two leaders agreed on a roadmap for trade and other strategic sectors, few could have imagined the speed with which a relationship built up over the past two decades would hit an all-time low just months later.

Trump's repeated claims of having brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan after their brief but intense conflict in May, his administration's growing proximity to Pakistan Army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, and the slapping of 50% tariffs on Indian goods-including a 25% penalty over Russian oil purchases - meant the India-US relationship was hit by a trust deficit reminiscent of the Cold War era.

The two sides held negotiations on what was meant to be the first tranche of a bilateral trade deal-initially to be concluded by the autumn of 2025-but the asks of the US administration in sensitive sectors for India such as agriculture and dairy left most experts believing that a resolution lay with political leadership rather than negotiators.