Trump-wary EU has energy security dilemma

More than three years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Europe's energy security is fragile. US liquefied natural gas helped to plug the Russian supply gap in Europe during the 2022-2023 energy crisis.

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But now that President Donald Trump has rocked relationships with Europe established after World War Two, and turned to energy as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations, businesses are wary that reliance on the United States has become another vulnerability.

Against this backdrop, executives at major EU firms have begun to say what would have been unthinkable a year ago: that importing some Russian gas, including from Russian state giant Gazprom, could be a good idea.

That would require another major policy shift given that Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 made the European Union pledge to end Russian energy imports by 2027.

Europe has limited options. Talks with LNG giant Qatar for more gas have stalled, and while the deployment of renewables has accelerated, the rate is not fast enough to allow the EU to feel secure.

"If there is a reasonable peace in Ukraine, we could go back to flows of 60 billion cubic metres, maybe 70, annually, including LNG," Didier Holleaux, executive vice-president at France's Engie, told Reuters in an interview.

The French state partly owns Engie, which used to be among the biggest buyers of Gazprom's gas. Holleaux said Russia could supply around 20-25% of EU needs, down from 40% before the war.

The head of French oil major TotalEnergies, Patrick Pouyanne, has warned Europe against over-relying on US gas. "We need to diversify, many routes, not over-rely on one or two," Pouyanne told Reuters. Total is a large exporter of U.S. LNG and also sells Russian LNG from private firm Novatek. "Europe will never go back to importing 150 billion cubic meters from Russia like before the war... but I would bet maybe 70 bcm," Pouyanne added.