A war redefining global order

US, ISRAEL HAVE SHOWN MILITARY SUPERIORITY, YET IRAN RETAINS ABILITY TO IMPOSE COSTS & SHAPE OUTCOMES

- HARSH V PANT Vice President for Studies and Foreign Policy, Observer Research Foundation

THE CONFLICT BETWEEN the United States and Iran that erupted on February 28 is no longer a discrete military episode; it has morphed into a structural rupture in West Asia’s strategic equilibrium. What began as a calibrated, high-impact decapitation strike, jointly executed by Washington and Israel under Operation Epic Fury, has evolved into a grinding air campaign with consequences that far exceed its original intent. If the opening salvo was meant to shock Tehran into submission, the subsequent trajectory suggests instead a familiar paradox of modern warfare: coercion has yielded consolidation, not capitulation.

The early hours of the conflict were marked by a dramatic escalation ladder. The assassination of Ali Khamenei, alongside senior figures such as Ali Larijani, was designed to decapitate the Iranian regime’s command structure. Yet, far from triggering systemic collapse, it catalysed a rapid and relatively disciplined succession. Mojtaba Khamenei emerged as Supreme Leader with remarkable speed, while hardline elements consolidated operational authority. This outcome underscores a critical misreading that has historically plagued external interventions in the region: the resilience of ideological states under siege.

Indeed, Iran’s response has been emblematic of its longstanding strategic doctrine—eschewing symmetry in favour of persistence. Ballistic missile and drone strikes targeting Israeli cities, US bases in the Gulf, and critical energy infrastructure across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain have signalled both capability and intent. While the tempo of these attacks has diminished significantly, their continuation has ensured that the psychological and economic costs remain disproportionately high. Tehran’s strategy is not to win outright but to deny victory.