STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF A POSSIBLE INDO-PAKISTAN WAR AND SRI LANKA'S STAND

The growing tensions between India and Pakistan, fueled by historical disputes and recent tragic incidents in Kashmir, threaten to destabilise not just South Asia but the broader global order. Sri Lanka, as a strategically located South Asian nation, faces critical decisions in maintaining regional stability and balancing diplomatic neutrality with emerging security and economic realities.

- By Major General Dr. Boniface Perera

The Indian subcontinent, rich in civilisation and culture, was once a unified region under British colonial rule. Before 1947, what we today call India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh existed as one country-British India. Administered under a single political framework, the subcontinent, however, housed a diverse tapestry of ethnicities, religions, and languages. The seeds of division were planted over decades of British "divide and rule" policies, and compounded by the rise of communal tensions in the early 20th century.

The eventual result was the Partition of 1947, a deeply traumatic event that led to the mass displacement of over 14 million people and the deaths of an estimated one million. Pakistan was created as a separate homeland for Muslims, while India retained a secular and pluralistic identity.

On April 22, 2025, the killing of 21 tourists in Kashmir sparked global outrage. Although the perpetrators were identified as militants linked to Pakistan-based groups, Islamabad denied involvement. India, however, intensified military operations in Kashmir and increased pressure on Pakistan diplomatically. This tragic event has reignited old wounds. For Sri Lanka, it signals the urgent need for South Asian nations to prevent another spiral into conflict that could engulf the region.

The Kashmir conflict remains the most dangerous flashpoint between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. When Maharaja Hari Singh acceded to India, Pakistan claimed Kashmir based on its Muslim majority. India countered that accession was legal under international law. Today, India controls about two-thirds of Kashmir, while Pakistan administers one-third. The real issue, however, is the lack of political autonomy, rampant militarisation, cross-border terrorism, and civilian suffering. Resolution has proven elusive, with both nations using Kashmir to stoke nationalist sentiments internally.

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