Models point to cooler days and a wetter start to the year

Much of South Africa could experience above-normal rainfall and days that are not as hot as usual

- By Lerato Mutsila

(Image: iStock)

If it feels as if the sun has taken a holiday too and the days feel less hot than usual this time of year, you're not imagining it.

The past two months have shaped up to be wetter and slightly cooler across much of South Africa, particularly in the interior. This has resulted in flooding in parts of KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape, in addition to golf-ball-sized hail in much of Gauteng, Mpumalanga and Limpopo.

Of course, the picture has been much different in the Western and Northern Cape and the southwestern parts of the Eastern Cape, where temperatures have been a bit more toasty and the skies drier.

South Africans should brace for more of this, at least for the next few months, as these trends are expected to continue into 2026.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) held a media briefing on Thursday, 18 December, on what to expect as we move into the new year. According to SAWS, climate models are pointing to weak La Niña to El Niño-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions persisting through the core of summer.

In plain terms, this tips the odds towards increased above-normal rain and fewer days of extreme heat in Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal and parts of North West and the Free State.

Michelle du Plessis, a meteorologist with Vox Weather, cautioned that the forecast is one that “tilts the odds” rather than promises outcomes, a crucial distinction echoed by Professor Willem Landman, a climate scientist at the University of Pretoria, who warns against treating seasonal forecasts like day-to-day predictions.

The tropical Pacific Ocean is experiencing what Landman described as a very weak La Niña, a climate pattern where the ocean water becomes cooler than normal, although it is already starting to fade towards neutral conditions.