Don't panic: Sri Lanka's fertility decline is temporary, not a demographic collapse

DESPITE recent claims by some researchers suggesting that Sri Lanka's population is entering a phase of long-term decline— due to falling fertility, increased emigration, and rising mortality—it is essential to approach this issue with scientific perspective rather than alarm.

- By Professor Lakshman Dissanayake

Short-term fluctuations do not necessarily indicate permanent trends. Population dynamics are complex, influenced by a multitude of factors, and what may appear as decline today could very well stabilise or rebound tomorrow.

Even during periods of slower growth, Sri Lanka's population continues to increase—albeit more slowly—due to population momentum. This refers to the continued population growth resulting from earlier high fertility and mortality patterns, particularly when large numbers of people are still in their childbearing years. Therefore, this article seeks to offer a scientific and demographic explanation of recent trends, correcting the misconception that Sri Lanka's population is irreversibly shrinking.

The COVID-19 and economic crisis effect: A double shock

The past few years have subjected Sri Lanka to an extraordinary convergence of crises, which together have reshaped the country's demographic landscape. The COVID-19 pandemic, followed closely by a severe economic downturn, created a powerful double shock—one that disrupted lives, livelihoods, and longstanding social norms, including those surrounding marriage and childbearing.

By 2023, over 16,800 COVID-19-related deaths had been reported in Sri Lanka. However, the demographic effects of the pandemic extend far beyond direct mortality.

Disruption across the life course

Healthcare services were interrupted, especially maternal and reproductive health care. Many people avoided health facilities due to fear of infection.

Marriages were delayed, not only because of social distancing restrictions and travel bans, but also due to economic uncertainty and the unaffordability of ceremonies and housing.

Employment insecurity and financial stress eroded young couples' confidence in their ability to raise children in a stable environment.