Long path to Tory victory starts with reform, not Reform

As Kemi Badenoch faces a potential bloodbath in next month's local elections, one mayoral contest in Cambridgeshire sheds light on what the Conservatives need to do to win back voters

- By Andrew Papworth

IT IS DUE to be a bloodbath for the Tories, with more than 700 of their councillors predicted to get the boot on May 1. But amid the expected rout at the ballot box, one battle deep in East Anglia could provide a surprising bright spark for under-pressure leader Kemi Badenoch who confirmed on Friday she would be happy for Conservative councillors at a local level to strike deals with Reform.

Despite last year’s worst-ever general election drubbing, a bombshell opinion poll suggests the Conservatives will snatch back the Cambridgeshire mayoralty in a surprise gain from Labour. The winner will oversee a county of contrasts, with a population nearing a million. Among the wealthy rural villages of South Cambs and the bustling university and tech corridor of Cambridge are areas of deprivation — in places like Wisbech.

And a surprise Labour Together survey put former Peterborough MP and Tory candidate Paul Bristow ahead on 31% to Labour's 27%, with the Lib Dems and Reform UK on 20% and 13% chasing on respectively.

But the Tories’ path to victory is far from clear. A small shift in Reform or Lib Dem support could take votes off either of the two main parties and drastically alter the result.

Yet a Bristow win in Cambridgeshire could be the highlight of what is likely to be an utterly dreary night for the Conservatives and give the party hope that all is not lost.

Talk to a few people in Peterborough and it’s clear what they want from their mayor. I trained as a journalist in the city 20 years ago. Since I left, the Queensgate Shopping Centre has lost its John Lewis and M&S.

One over-65-year-old I speak to there is Angela. She says: "When John Lewis went, that was the nail in the coffin really. It has had a big knock-on effect. The city centre has deteriorated."