Poll: Inflation likely picked up in Oct.

PHILIPPINE inflation may have slightly accelerated in October amid elevated prices of food, fuel and electricity as well as a weak peso, analysts said.

- By Katherine K. Chan

A Business World poll of 17 analysts yielded a median estimate of 1.8% for the consumer price index in October. If realized, October inflation would have slightly picked up from the 1.7% clip in September but slowed from the 2.3% seen in the same month last year.

The median estimate also falls within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 1.4-2.2% forecast for October.

It may also be the fastest clip in eight months or since the 2.1% in February and would match the 1.8% in March.

October could likewise mark the eighth month in a row that inflation undershot the BSP’s 2-4% target.

The Philippine Statistics Authority is set to release the October inflation data on Nov. 5.

Aris D. Dacanay, economist for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations at HSBC Global Investment Research, said inflation likely settled at 1.8% in October as prices of vegetables rose following typhoons.

“Electricity prices also increased as the depreciation of the peso over the US dollar led to higher generation charges,” he added.

The Manila Electric Co. hiked the overall electricity rate by P0.2331 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to P13.3182 per kWh in October.

Moody’s Analytics economist Sarah Tan said increased transport and fuel prices may have also contributed to faster inflation in October.

“Higher transport and fuel costs, together with weather-related disruptions affecting some food items, are putting mild upward pressure on prices,” she said in an email.

In October, pump price adjustments stood at a net increase of P1.80 a liter for gasoline, P2.10 per liter for diesel and P1.10 per liter for kerosene.

“Fuel prices also remained stable; global oil prices cooled in October, offsetting any inflationary impact brought by a weaker peso,” Mr. Dacanay said.