Learning from history: Five points and a caution

SIGNS AND WONDERS

- DIWA C. GUINIGUNDO

The other day, we were one of the three panelists during the 6th General Membership Meeting of the Financial Executives Institute of the Philippines or Finex.

The other two were Finance Assistant Secretary Neil Adrian S. Cabiles and Metrobank Chief Economist Nicholas Mapa, a former colleague at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ Department of Economic Research. Their presentations focused on the economic and financial aspects of the theme “Philippine Economic Outlook: Policy Shifts and Market Reactions After the 2025 Elections.”

Mr. Cabiles was more than convincing in saying that the Philippine Government is moving heaven and earth to invite foreign investors to invest in the Philippines, get the infrastructure projects completed as scheduled, and ensure that business processes do not pose any obstacles to doing business in this country. Mr. Mapa sounded his well-crafted five calls in the Philippines, particularly on monetary policy, adaptation to the US tariff policy, and the direction of the Philippine peso — ingenious and to the point.

Let me share my brief presentation with some edits for publication.

My proposition is that the 2025 mid-term elections were not exactly a game-changing political event, whether in terms of policy shift or market reaction. We need to learn from history.

First, notwithstanding what appears to be a mild repudiation of the Marcos administration's senatorial candidates, with two opposition candidates emerging in the top five, and some unknown but qualified candidates surpassing the votes obtained by some candidates of both the Administration and former President Rodrigo Duterte’s PDP Laban, the change in the Cabinet was far from a revamp. There was no cosmetic surgery done, there was only a slight tweak in the shade of the foundation and a little powdering on the surface. “Not business as usual” might be a misnomer.