IMF raises Philippine growth forecast for 2026

THE INTERNATIONAL Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the Philippines for 2026 but kept its projection for this year amid heightened global uncertainty.

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In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF upwardly revised its 2026 Philippine growth forecast to 5.9% from 5.8% previously. However, this would be below the government's 6-7% GDP growth target for next year.

The IMF's Philippine economic growth projection for 2026 is higher than Indonesia (4.8%), Malaysia (4%), and Thailand (1.7%).

At the same time, the IMF maintained its GDP growth forecast for the Philippines at 5.5% this year, the same as its estimate in April. This would fall at the low end of the government's 5.5-6.5% target range for 2025.

The IMF projects the Philippines’ GDP growth this year to outpace that of Indonesia (4.8%), Malaysia (4.5%), and Thailand (2%).

"Since the April 2025 WEO, uncertainty has remained elevated even as effective tariff rates have come down," the IMF said in its report.

US President Donald J. Trump announced a 19% tariff on Philippine goods, following a meeting with President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. last week. The new rate will take effect on Aug. 1

At the time the April WEO came out, the Philippines was slapped with a 17% tariff in Mr. Trump’s initial round of “Liberation Day” tariffs.