Being the odd one out is working for the Philippines

GIVE the Philippines its due. The country could emerge as one of the winners from the trade war. Ironically, this reflects shortcomings from an earlier chapter in Asian commercial history.

- By Daniel Moss

Victory in the tariff era is relative. Few countries, if any, will come out ahead. Confidence was badly shaken by the vast scale of duties imposed by the White House in April, even if many were suspended for several months after a market swoon. The Philippines has a decent shot at being harmed least. The levy thrust on Manila by US President Donald Trump was 18%; within Southeast Asia, only Singapore fared better.

It can count its lucky stars that manufacturing never really took off. When supply chains, particularly for electronics, began winding through Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand in the last decades of the 20th century, the archipelago was largely overlooked. While the autocrat Ferdinand Marcos — father of the current president — was overthrown in 1986, big problems that discouraged investment remained. Infrastructure was shoddy, corruption was rampant, budgets were shaky, and political instability lingered. (The armed forces mounted a number of failed coup attempts, the most recent of which, in 2007, ended in a shoot-out in a top hotel in the capital's business district.)