‘Sharp fall in Jan fiscal spending muddles growth path’

WHILE the Philippines recorded a budget surplus in January, continued fiscal tightening, project delays and now the fallout from the Middle East conflict could threaten this year’s economic growth.

- By REINE JUVIERRE ALBERTO

Nomura Global Markets Research said through a report that the “sharp” fall in fiscal spending in January points to a limited near-term economic recovery following a worse-than-expected decline in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The research arm of Nomura Holdings Inc., hence wrote that they “thus see rising downside risks” to their 2026 GDP growth forecast of 5.3 percent, “which is well below potential, in addition to the fallout from the Iran conflict, to which the Philippines is relatively heavily exposed, in our view.”