Missiles, markets, and misery

THE distance between Iran and the Philippines is roughly 7,000 kilometers—far beyond the reach of even Iran's longest-range missiles, which can travel around 2,000 to 2,500 kilometers.

- Atty. Laurence Rogero

In military terms, the Philippines lies well outside the battlefield.

But the economics of war travel much farther than missiles ever could.

They move through oil markets, shipping routes, insurance premiums, and currency exchanges. A missile launched thousands of kilometers away may never reach Philippine shores—but the economic shock it sets in motion can still arrive much sooner at your friendly neighborhood Metro Manila diesel pump.

The transmission mechanism is well understood in global energy markets. When conflict threatens oil-producing regions or vital shipping routes, traders immediately price in the risk of disruption. Tankers passing through choke-points such as the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply flows, face higher insurance costs and potential delays. Those risks are quickly embedded in global crude prices and eventually reflected in refined fuel markets across Asia.

By the time diesel reaches trading hubs like Singapore and eventually Philippine depots, the geopolitical shock has already been priced in.

The impact is no longer theoretical. Since the start of 2026, diesel prices in Metro Manila have roughly doubled—a year-to-date increase of over P57 per liter, driven by 11 consecutive weeks of price hikes and no sign of relief in sight. The DOE has issued projections suggesting further double-digit increases ahead. That trajectory is not an anomaly; it is the predictable arithmetic of geopolitical risk landing on an economy structurally exposed to imported fuel.