Traders await tariffs ruling

China is the largest buyer of Iran's crude oil, and escalating US trade pressure could force Beijing to retaliate to protect its economic interests, potentially reigniting tariff conflicts between the world's two largest economies, he said.

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Other analysts are more positive about the potential outcome, though they agree with the likelihood of a Trump defeat in the court ruling.

Suwat Sinsadok, managing director of Globlex Securities, said the market has overestimated the amount the US has to refund to exporters, saying the actual refund will not pose significant risks to the US's fiscal status.

"I think there should be a compromise between both sides in this case," he said, adding the actual amount the US has to pay to exporters "is negotiable".

Suwat Wattanapornprom, head of the research division at Krungsri Securities, expects some short-term gains if the US court eventually rules against Trump in the case.

"If the US has to refund exporters, there would be some outflows from the US equities market to other stock exchanges globally including Thailand," he said.

"However, the positive sentiment is unlikely to last long as the Trump administration will soon find other tools for tax collection for imports to the US," said Mr Suwat.