No-confidence and poll date in flux

Amid the drumbeats of military conflict with Cambodia, Thailand's political environment is evidently unruly and unsettled. The minority government of Anutin Charnvirakul, the third prime minister from the third largest-winning party since the latest national election in May 2023, is hard-pressed to stay in office beyond the four-month "Memorandum of Agreement" between his Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) and the People's Party (PP), the largest camp in the national assembly.

- Thitinan Pongsudhirak

As pressure mounts from a planned noconfidence motion in December and explosive corruption allegations against cabinet members related to scam networks and cyberfraud, Prime Minister Anutin may be forced to bring forward the election from the anticipated end of March next year, despite his playing up nationalism over the Thai-Cambodian border dispute.

Following the dissolution of PP's predecessor Move Forward Party and the removal of the second-largest poll winner, Pheu Thai Party's Srettha Thavisin, from the premiership in August 2023 and Paetongtarn Shinawatra a year later, Mr Anutin took the helm of a stopgap administration. Despite the four-month MoA with PP, the Anutin cabinet comprising old-style unsavoury politicians from provincial patronage networks appeared set to stay in public office where they are able to gain from pork-barrelling projects ahead of the next poll, which is due by May 2027.

While the finance, commerce, and energy portfolios were filled by technocrats, the lion's share of cabinet posts went to the Anutin-led BJT, overseen by party patriarch Newin Chidchob, along with coalition allies, Klatham and United Thai Nation parties. The BJT-PP deal was that Mr Anutin would steer parliamentary proceedings and see through charter amendments to pave the way for a new constitution by holding a referendum on its drafting structure concurrently at the next poll.