Moderate global growth masks regional strains

Global economic growth still continues, but at a moderate pace.

- John J Metzler

That's the verdict from the UN’s World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026, which predicts that global economic output will grow by 2.7% this year, or slightly below the 2.8% estimated for 2025, but less than the pre-pandemic average of 3.2%.The annual survey asserts that “the global economy has shown resilience amid turbulence during the past year, including shifting trade policies ... that a sharp increase in United States tariffs created new trade frictions.”

Nonetheless, the report adds, “Unexpected resilience to the tariffs shock, supported by solid consumer spending and easing inflation, helped sustain growth, but underlying weaknesses persist.”

“A combination of economic, geopolitical and technological tensions is reshaping the global landscape, generating new economic uncertainty and social vulnerabilities,” cautioned UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who warned that “many developing economies continue to struggle.”

This statement without question reflects the global conflicts and simmering international tensions ranging from Ukraine to the Middle East and East Asia.

Some specifics are now needed.

The United States remains the engine of global growth, projected at 2% in 2026, up from 1.9% in 2025, supported by monetary and fiscal easing.