Capital up for grabs

Undecided majority

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This volatility is reflected in recent Nida (National Institute of Development Administration) Poll findings showing that more than 40% of Bangkok voters remain undecided, while nearly 47% have yet to commit to any party. Mr Olarn interprets this not as apathy, but as strategic waiting.

"Bangkok voters are waiting to see which issue will become decisive," he said, identifying two potential triggers.

The first is nationalism, particularly amid the violent border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia.

A party that articulates a clear stance - whether hardline retaliation or a liberal, negotiation-based approach - could convert geopolitical anxiety into electoral support.

"Any party that successfully frames the Thai-Cambodian conflict as a political narrative could gain significantly," Mr Olarn said.

The second is the issue of scammers and grey-zone criminal networks, especially online fraud.

If a party can convincingly champion such issue and advertise itself as capable of dismantling entrenched criminal systems, it could influence late-deciding urban voters.

"These are the two issues Bangkokians are waiting for before they decide," he said.

Bhumjaithai's gamble

Asked whether Bhumjaithai (BJT) Party, leading the government, could capitalise on nationalist sentiment to win seats in Bangkok for the first time, Mr Olarn said it was possiblebut insufficient on its own.

"Nationalism alone won't be enough," he cautioned. "They need real policies, particularly on Thai-Cambodian relations."

He added that the constitutional framework has weakened political parties across the board.

"Under this constitution, parties are fragile. People feel that no matter who they vote for, it doesn't make much difference. That's why momentum matters more than policy substance."