The Risk Report

THE 2015 MIGRANT CRISIS STILL hangs over Europe. The more than 1.3 million migrants—particularly from Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq—who claimed asylum that year have been a boon for grievance-driven European populism and its most talented practitioners. The upshot is a cultural and economic anxiety that has transformed the continent's political landscape.

- By Ian Bremmer CONTRIBUTING EDITOR

And yet, the first 10 years of the far right's rise have amounted to a “yes, but” decade. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany party has steadily expanded its regional and federal influence, but all other major parties still treat political collaboration with it as taboo. In France, the populist Marine Le Pen has shown she can reach the second round of presidential elections, but has been unable to claim victory. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni in 2022 became the first anti-immigrant populist to win a big European election, but her strong cooperation with Brussels and consistent support for Ukraine have helped her defy far-right stereotypes. In the U.K., Brexit champion Nigel Farage might now be polling in first place, but that's still some distance from winning the next general elections in 2029.

Centrist governments have also emerged this year after elections in Germany and Romania, despite a rise in support for the far right. Meanwhile, the Dutch government, led by the far-right Party for Freedom, collapsed in June, and the Austrian Freedom Party has failed to form a ruling coalition despite winning elections in September.