Keep a wary eye on North Korea

OVER THE DECADES, NORTH KOrea's leaders have periodically made bombastic threats of military force against South Korea and its foreign backers, particularly the U.S. and Japan.

- IAN BREMMER

And for the most part, while carefully monitoring North Korean military moves on the ground, by sea, and in the air, leaders in Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo could dismiss these incendiary-sounding warnings as a substitute for action rather than a sign that aggression is imminent.

There are reasons why that might be changing and why we should now pay closer attention to what Kim Jong Un and his generals are up to. There are growing worries North Korea could carry out a surprise attack or launch some other provocation against South Korea over the course of this year, even if it falls short of war. The risk looks particularly high in the run-up to South Korea's next legislative elections, now set for April.