The Trump, Taiwan, puzzle and China

SINCE THE INAUGU-rations of William Lai as Taiwan's President in May 2024 and Donald Trump as U.S. President in January, Beijing has been on edge.

- - BY IAN BREMMER

Will Lai take provocative actions that demand a response? And what is Trump's attitude toward Taiwan and its fight to remain outside China's orbit?

The answers have proved complicated. In the early days of his presidency, Lai carefully avoided riling Beijing unnecessarily. The strength of Taiwan's economy last year appeared to relieve him of any political need to rally his nationalist base with fist-shaking actions or rhetoric toward the mainland. But his Democratic Progressive Party lacks a parliamentary majority, and he can't be sure the Trump Administration has his back. Whatever his political intent, Lai has become more strident on cross—Taiwan Strait questions in recent weeks.