The Risk Report

IN DONALD TRUMP'S FIRST TERM and at the opening of his second, the U.S. President and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi looked to have a special relationship.

- - By Ian Bremmer CONTRIBUTING EDITOR

Similar views on the value of strongman domestic politics and a common aim to check China's global ambitions made them well-aligned partners. Things have changed. Common interests remain the bedrock of relations between the U.S. and Modi's India, but the personal trust that helped build their relationship has now cooled significantly.

You might think the biggest source of tension between the two leaders is Trump's search for leverage over Russia's Vladimir Putin—in particular, his bid to halt India's import of sanctioned Russian oil to force Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. But it's another armed conflict that's at the heart of the friction.