GOODBYE, GLOBALIZATION?

AS AMERICAN POLITICIANS TURN AGAINST ECONOMIC OPENNESS, HISTORY SUGGESTS THE CONSEQUENCES COULD BE DIRE.

- DANIEL W. DREZNER

AT THE DAWN of the 21st century, countries in both the Global South and the former communist bloc were falling over each other to lower their trade barriers, liberalize their capital markets, and encourage their best and brightest to study in the West. Multinational firms were expanding their supply chains to bring workers from Mexico,

China, Vietnam, India, and Russia into their fold. The internet had created entirely new ways for information to cross borders. Labor productivity was soaring and global poverty was falling.

U.S. politicians largely embraced this trend. Republicans and Democrats cooperated to negotiate trade agreements with both longtime friends and former foes. All this took place in a context of public optimism: In January 2000, 69 percent of Americans told Gallup they were satisfied with the country’s direction.

Two decades later, things have not quite worked out the way many champions of free trade hoped at the end of President Bill Clinton’s administration. Neither China nor Russia turned into liberal, free market democracies. Two decades of unending war have been peppered by financial crises, populist uprisings, and pandemics. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions are merely the latest shock to the system.

Countries are now falling over each other to erect new barriers to trade, impose capital controls, and restrict migration flows. U.S. politicians have embraced this trend too: The strongest throughline between the Donald Trump and Joe Biden presidencies has been their hostility to economic openness. All this is taking place in a context of public pessimism: In March, just 22 percent of Americans told Gallup they were satisfied with the country’s direction.