BABY BLUES

China's low birth rate and aging population are ending any hopes BEIJING had of overtaking the U.S. as an economic giant

- JOHN FENG and MICAH MCCARTNEY

SINGLE AND MARRIED WOMEN ACROSS

China are receiving cold calls from local authorities encouraging them to step up and have more children. They are but one demographic targeted for mobilization by Beijing policymakers who are aiming to raise markers of comprehensive national power in the early stages of what is to be a protracted trade war with the United States.

China today is four times more populous than the United States. However, United Nations data forecasts China's population will decrease by around 55 percent by the turn of the next century, in contrast to the U.S., which will grow by 18 percent. No other society has ever faced a steeper population decline absent war, disease or famine.

The central government's angst over the flagging birth rate is driving localities to experiment with a flurry of pro-natal policies, and nationwide calls for more babies are the surest sign yet that fears about a shrinking workforce and an aging population—both serious impediments to long-term economic expansion—have reached the top of the Chinese leadership.

The 2020s were meant to be a milestone decade for President Xi Jinping, in which China's unstoppable march would inevitably see it rise above the U.S. in terms of economic strength. But the force of China's economic headwinds and the scale of its demographic problems have caught many economists by surprise. The Centre for Economics and Business Research, which in 2020 predicted that China would overtake the U.S. by 2028, revised the crossover point two years later, to 2036. This month, the British consultancy said it will not happen in the next 15 years.