TARIFFS AND GLOBALISATION NOTHING CHANGES, BUT EVERYTHING DOES

International tariffs on footwear will not stop globalisation, but they will redirect its course. Global production chains are structured in such a way that around two-thirds of the footwear consumed is produced in countries other than those where it is purchased. The idea of deglobalisation is, therefore, a misleading narrative. Rather, we are witnessing a reconfiguration of global trade towards a form of regional globalisation. In this shift, logistics and geopolitics are becoming increasingly important, overtaking the traditional competitive advantages based solely on cost.

- By Enrico Cietta, Economist and Chairman of the exhibition's Scientific Committee and Expo Riva Schuh & Gardabags Research Centre

The debate on the impact of tariffs in the footwear industry is more relevant than ever. To fully understand the dynamics at play, it is essential to consider the global context of production and consumption. According to the Expo Riva Schuh & Gardabags Research Centre, Enrico Cietta, economist and Chairman of the exhibition's Scientific Committee, points out that globalisation is evolving but remains an unstoppable process.

The resilience of globalisation and the impact of crises

Contrary to what some may believe, the introduction of new tariffs will not trigger an "avalanche that overwhelms globalisation. Our globalised footwear production system cannot simply be switched off," says Cietta. Globalisation is changing shape, but it will not revert to a model in which each country independently manufactures its own shoes.

Recent data reveals a clear disconnect between declining consumption and production and the comparatively stronger resilience of exports.

In 2023, there was a significant drop in consumption - around one billion fewer pairs sold compared to 2017, and 1.3 billion fewer than in 2022.

Production saw a similarly steep decline, with 1.1 billion fewer pairs than in 2017 and 1.4 billion fewer than in 2022.

However, the fall in exports was far more modest: just 0.3 billion fewer pairs than in 2017 and 1.1 billion fewer than in 2022.

This is a crucial point: crises tend to impact consumption and production more than they do exports. The reason is structural: "Two out of every three pairs of shoes we consume are produced outside the country where they are ultimately purchased." Exports demonstrate significantly greater resilience to economic crises, highlighting the difficulty in halting the globalisation of footwear production.