Making Decisions in Uncertain Times

The key: Have a plan (and use it).

- By Al Kluis

Does this sound familiar? “I used to like to read the paper every morning. But now it is so full of politics and negative news that I only read the business and sports pages.”

That's what a longtime customer from Iowa told me. He said he can still trade weather markets, but the markets driven by U.S. and global politics, changing trade policies, and tariffs are really tough. “I just can’t stomach all the angry news,” he said. “So I miss out on some of the facts.”

I understand how frustrating reading the morning paper can be these days. However, I still read three newspapers every morning.

I put on my “mental filter” and scan the news for facts, trying to see through the anger and drama. It’s important for all of us, because in today’s grain market, politics and the decisions made in Washington and Beijing have a huge impact on the grain, energy, and livestock markets. I also like to report on overseas news events in my a.m. update.

While it’s important to understand how current events may move prices, when making selling decisions, I have learned to focus on reviewing my charts and making sure I am executing my plan. You can do that, too. Focus on what you can control. Do not let yourself fret about what you are reading in the newspapers or on the internet.

This chart shows how corn revenue per acre went higher from 2016 until 2022. There was just a slight pullback in 2019. Farmers with good yields reported record per-acre revenue and profits in 2022. The trend turned lower in 2023. According to recent USDA reports, corn revenue per acre is projected to move lower again in 2025. I respect the USDA analysis but I think corn prices and revenue will be higher in 2025.

Here is a list of three key factors to review when evaluating where you are: