Growing pessimism in industry about net-zero timeline

Energy executives are sceptical about the ability to achieve net-zero and unless significant breakthroughs occur, and fast, net-zero will remain a distant, and possibly unattainable, goal, say Bain Company experts

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DESPITE record-breaking global investment in clean energy last year, the very leaders responsible for driving the transition are growing increasingly doubtful about when or even if the world will reach net-zero carbon emissions.

This stark shift in sentiment is revealed in Bain & Company's 2025 Energy and Natural Resources (ENR) Executive Survey.

Nearly half (44 per cent) of ENR executives now believe net-zero emissions will not be achieved until 2070 or later, a sharp increase from 31 per cent in 2024.

Even more concerning, only 32 per cent still expect it by 2050, marking a significant reversal from previous years when 40 per cent to 50 per cent saw 2050 as a feasible target.

On average, oil and gas executives predict peak oil will not occur until around 2038, further underscoring the expectation that fossil fuels will continue to play a dominant role in global energy supply for decades to come.

Bain's annual survey, which gathers insights from over 700 executives across oil and gas, utilities, chemicals, mining, and agribusiness, provides a crucial reality check on the industry's outlook.

It paints a clear picture of leaders increasingly struggling to balance the pressures of the energy transition with financial and operational constraints.

FINANCIAL BARRIERS THREATEN TO DERAIL ENERGY TRANSITION

Optimism about the energy transition is giving way to a more hard-nosed financial reality.

The once-booming enthusiasm for environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG)-driven investment is fading, replaced by a heightened focus on return on investment (ROI).

Tighter budgets, constrained balance sheets, and soaring capital costs are forcing companies to make difficult decisions about where to allocate resources.

Executives overwhelmingly cite financial viability as the biggest roadblock to scaling up transition-oriented growth energy (TGE) businesses.