The impact of China's declining population on SA agri trade

The National Bureau of Statistics of China recently reported that the population in that country is declining. Absa AgriBusiness explores the possible impact of this megatrend on South Africa's agriculture sector.

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News from China of the decline in that country’s population by 850 000 people year-on-year to around 1,4 billion at the end of 2022 has been lost in the wave of local news reporting on the fallout from rolling blackouts.

This relatively sparse coverage belies its importance; the fall in China’s population has long-term implications for global production, consumption, trade and inflation (see FW, 10 February).

POPULATION OUTLOOK

The UN predicts that China’s population will fall from a peak of about 1,43 billion in 2022 to around 1,31 billion in 2050, dropping further to less than 800 million by 2100 (see graph). This decline has been ascribed to the impact of that country’s ‘onechild policy’, which was enforced in 1980 and abandoned in 2016.

In addition, that country’s birth rate has also failed to pick up dramatically in recent years due to the high cost of child rearing, as well as the established culture of having smaller families.

The age distribution of China’s population is also expected to become increasingly skewed towards the elderly.