Shifting weather, harvest cycles, and consumer demand

This week, Absa AgriBusiness analyses the trends that have influenced vegetable supply and demand dynamics at the major fresh produce markets over the past month.

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From early April to mid-May, fluctuations in supply volumes across key vegetable categories have directly impacted price trends, highlighting the sensitivity of fresh produce markets to production dynamics.

CABBAGES

From the first week of April until the first week of May, market volumes remained limited compared with the same period last year, resulting in fluctuating price trends. However, in the week ending 9 May, cabbage volumes recovered to levels last seen at the end of March.

Month-on-month (m/m), average prices dropped sharply by 36,8% (see Graph 1), falling from R4 777/t to R3 018/t, driven by a 13,6% rise in average volumes.

Year-on-year (y/y), average prices decreased by 19% (see Graph 2) due to a 223,6% increase in volumes supplied. Despite this short-term recovery, cabbage volumes remain historically low, after the lowest harvest in five years was recorded.

Supplies are expected to remain constrained until June, so prices will likely be volatile within the R3 000/t to R4 000/t range before potentially peaking again in July.