Global grain outlook: 2024/25 marketing season

In its latest summer crops report, the Crop Estimates Committee says South African farmers intend to plant 4,47 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds in the 2024/25 season, up 1% from the previous season. As South Africa exports maize and soya bean, Annelie Coleman reports on the latest trends in the international grain and oilseed markets, amid fluctuations in weather conditions and ongoing armed conflicts.

- Annelie Coleman

In its 'Summer Crops (2025): Intentions to Plant' report, released in October, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) states that South African maize farmers have indicated their plans to plant just over 2,64 million hectares to the crop in the 2024/25 production season. In the 2023/24 production season, a little more than 2,636 million hectares were planted to maize, with the harvest estimated at over 12,72 million tons.

The CEC also reports that commercial producers intend to plant 1,578 million hectares to white maize, about 1,5% or 22 850ha more than the previous season. In the case of yellow maize, the expected plantings are 1,062 million hectares, which is roughly 1,8% or 19 000ha less than the previous season.

As far as sunflower seed is concerned, the estimated area to be planted is 540 000ha, up 2,1%, or 11 000ha, from the 2023/24 marketing season.

The intended plantings of soya bean are expected to increase by 0,2%, or 2 700ha, compared with the previous season, from 1,15 million hectares to 1,153 million hectares. In contrast, expected plantings of groundnuts are set to decrease by 2,9%, or 1 200ha, from 41 200ha to 40 000ha.

Sorghum plantings are anticipated to rise significantly by 28,3%, or 11 900ha, compared with last season, bringing the total to 54 000ha.

Additionally, expected plantings of dry beans are estimated at 45 105ha, representing an increase of 14%, or 5 555ha, from the previous season.

"The fact that South African maize producers were able to produce sufficient grain [in the 2023/24 season] to meet domestic and export demand, despite the months of drought in Southern Africa triggered by the El Niño phenomenon, is testament to a world-class local production sector successfully driven by a free market system,” says Jaco Minnaar, president of Agri SA.