Belém's Hard Lesson

COP30 in Belem delivered mixed outcomes amid rising geopolitical tensions and record climate impacts.

- Mollah Amzad Hossain & Afroza Akther Pervin

While countries agreed to triple adaptation finance by 2035, adopt 59 GGA indicators, mobilize USD 300 billion annually, and launch a Just Transition Mechanism, the summit failed to produce a fossil fuel phaseout roadmap-the most critical missing piece. Finance pledges for forests, health, and loss and damage exceeded expectations, but consensus politics limited ambition. Belem exposed widening gaps between scientific urgency and political will as the world heads toward COP31.

COP30 unfolded in Belem at a moment when the world felt unusually fragile. Delegates arrived in the Amazon carrying the weight of record-breaking heat, devastating climate disasters, and a global political climate that seemed to shift by the week. Expectations were modest from the start. With the United States once again withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and geopolitical tensions rising, many feared the summit might deliver even less than usual. Yet, despite its limitations, Belém sparked a debate that is still ongoing: Was this COP a step forward, or simply another reminder of how difficult global climate action has become?

Those debates began almost as soon as the gavel fell. One seasoned negotiator, hardened by years inside the UN process, noted that-with a few exceptions-no previous COP has delivered significantly more than Belém. “Has any COP done better?” he asked rhetorically, before answering himself: “No.” Others saw a different picture. Negotiators with decades of experience argued that the quality of discussions in Belém fell short of earlier summits, reflecting the fractures of an increasingly polarized world.