The Fourth Turning: The Birth of a New World Order and AI as the Emerging Archetype

Looking back in time, we encounter several intriguing theories and observations. One such perspective suggests that roughly every eighty years, the world experiences catastrophic events that alter the course of human history.

- Shrikanth

History is synonymous with cycles of inflections and disruptions. The concept that history moves in cycles rather than straight lines comes from the belief that history and events that become part of history tend to repeat over time in different ways.

The current scheme of events both in the tech and the geo-political landscape foretell the probability of many upcoming ‘Black Swan’ events that will change the very fabric of our lives as we move forward. The term ‘Black Swan’ was popularized by celebrated author Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book -The Black Swan, in which he investigates how rare and unpredictable events have a profound impact on our lives and work.

The aftermath of COVID-19 is one such Black Swan moment. And now, the rise of Generative AI, first seen as pure tech development is transforming into much bigger. The real impact and scale of it, no one is sure about. It has all the trapping of a Black Swan, we are unable to determine how it will manifest in the long run.

Staying on the course of history’s cyclical and unpredictable nature, and the impact of AI, we can lean on an interesting theory called Strauss–Howe Generational Theory, a part of the book called ‘The Fourth Turning’ that describes generational cycles and societal change. The book was authored by William Strauss and Neil Howe.

Let’s apply this to the current AI-driven disruption and try and decode the context of societal cycles, leadership shifts, and technological evolutions.

BEFORE THAT, WHAT IS FOURTH TURNING?