China's Grey Future

MINHAZ MERCHANT IS THE BIOGRAPHER OF RAJIV GANDHI AND ADITYA BIRLA AND AUTHOR OF THE NEW CLASH OF  CIVILIZATIONS (RUPA, 2014). HE IS FOUNDER OF STERLING NEWSPAPERS, WHICH WAS ACQUIRED BY THE INDIAN EXPRESS GROUP

- Minhaz Merchant

CHINA’S population isn’t just shrinking. It’s greying. Several young Chinese couples don’t want more than one child. Raising children is expensive – from education,

right through school and university, to buying larger family homes. Increasing numbers of young Chinese women have full-time careers. As in the West, work often takes precedence over large families.

The economic consequences of an ageing China are grim: as the productive workforce falls, GDP growth will slow. For Indian policymakers China’s demographic decline can be a strategic weapon in dealing with Beijing’s territorial aggression. Not enough attention has been paid by Indian analysts on how China’s demographic vulnerability can be used to counter Beijing’s hegemonic ambitions in the region.

Following the shooting down of a Chinese spy balloon airship by the United States, the Pentagon says Beijing has also spied on India and other countries with similar high-tech balloon airships. These are equipped with artificial intelligence (AI)-guided surveillance equipment and monitored real-time at military data centres in China.

Beijing, however, has moderated its “wolf diplomacy” after a backlash from several countries. China’s new foreign minister Qin Gang, the former ambassador to Washington, represents a marked change from his predecessor, the stentorian Wang Yi who has been pushed upstairs as director of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Foreign Affairs Commission.