Big, but not Whole

India could become an economic superpower by 2047. Yet, China’s experience should teach us that size isn’t everything; there are other factors we need to improve on as well

- BY UDAYAN MUKHERJEE

IT IS AUGUST 15, 2047, and India has turned 100. A hundred years of giant strides as an economic destination. An $18-trillion economy, just a whisker away from overtaking China as the world's second-largest. The third-largest stock market in the world with the Sensex at 1 million. The world's largest democracy and an economic superpower.

This is no pipe dream. Nor does it assume annual growth at double digits to reach this summit. Modest compounding and avoiding major policy mistakes gets us there in the next 25 years. The headline numbers are all set to be staggering on our hundredth anniversary; it is the stuff below that makes one pause.

Despite such phenomenal growth at an aggregate level, India may still not be a developed nation by then. Pollution, climate change and overpopulation may have rendered many of our top cities uninhabitable. Economic inequality and communal disharmony may have shattered the social equilibrium, making India intrinsically unsafe. A steady outward migration to countries with better living standards may have left us deprived of the best talent. And, just like in China, whose enormous economic size never succeeded in making it a country its citizens enjoyed living in, India too may have attained size but fallen short of what it takes to become a country that is developed, in the true sense of the term. Gross domestic product (GDP) is good, but it cannot paper over all cracks. We need to proceed with caution.