BUDGET MATH MEETS AMBITION

With tax buoyancy holding up and spending patterns stabilising, Budget 2026-27 has an opportunity to unlock reforms India Inc has long demanded

- BY ASHISH SINHA

AS NEW DELHI prepares to draw up the Union Budget for 2026-27, the fiscal math offers both comfort and constraint, setting the tone for what is realistically possible.

Tax collections through most of FY26 have broadly tracked official expectations, reflecting steady direct tax inflows and resilient indirect taxes, even as global growth remains uneven. On the spending side, government expenditure has progressed in a calibrated manner against allocations announced on 1 February 2025, with no visible signs of fiscal slippage. This balance—reasonably buoyant revenues combined with disciplined outgo—has given the Finance Ministry limited but meaningful headroom.

Not enough for fiscal adventurism or sweeping giveaways, but sufficient for targeted recalibration in areas that promise high economic and social returns.

The government enters this Budget season with the credibility of sticking to its consolidation path, an important signal for investors and rating agencies alike, while also facing mounting expectations from industry and states for sharper interventions. The underlying question is no longer whether the Centre can spend more, but where it should spend smarter. Against this backdrop, Budget 2026-27 is shaping up less as an exercise in headline-grabbing announcements and more as a test of intent—about which bottlenecks will finally be addressed, how incremental resources will be deployed, and whether stable macro numbers can now be translated into micro-level ease of doing business, faster dispute resolution, and stronger foundations for long-term growth.

What India Inc. Wants