Tesla will fail to meet its target of delivering 20 million cars per year by 2030 unless it imminently introduces new models to bring more customers to the brand, a leading analytics firm has told Autocar.
During its 1 March Investor Day, labelled by some as disappointing for its lack of a new car reveal, CEO Elon Musk instead showcased new, highly efficient working processes that will drive down the cost of future vehicles and allow the US firm to grow its output.
But for the four-model car maker to go from 1.31m deliveries last year to almost 19 times that in only seven years, more than just new production processes are needed, according to the analyst arm of banking firm Bernstein.
Toyota, the world's biggest car company, for example, last year sold just over 10m and it has a global reach stretching into nearly all markets, some of which it dominates entirely.
Currently, Tesla relies on its Model Y and Model 3 (1.25m) for the bulk of its sales - and that is expected to lessen, given their age, reckons Daniel Roeska, Bernstein's lead automotive analyst.
"EV models have generally struggled to increase volume beyond the third or fourth year of introduction," he said. "We struggle to see how Tesla can meet consensus expectations of 2.4m-2.5m [in 2024] without a new model." Bernstein predicts the firm will hit 1.9m sales in 2023.
Tesla has already pressed the nuclear option to stimulate sales by cutting prices by as much as £8000 on the Model Y and Model 3. The firm reckons it can do this without harming its impressive profits because the cars are cheaper to build.
この記事は Autocar UK の March 22, 2023 版に掲載されています。
7 日間の Magzter GOLD 無料トライアルを開始して、何千もの厳選されたプレミアム ストーリー、8,500 以上の雑誌や新聞にアクセスしてください。
すでに購読者です ? サインイン
この記事は Autocar UK の March 22, 2023 版に掲載されています。
7 日間の Magzter GOLD 無料トライアルを開始して、何千もの厳選されたプレミアム ストーリー、8,500 以上の雑誌や新聞にアクセスしてください。
すでに購読者です? サインイン
AUDI SQ8 E-TRON SPORTBACK
Our big EV has already clocked 10,000 miles. Here's what we've learned so far
RAISING THE SHED
The 'factory' where Tyrrell's F1 winners were made has been saved from demolition. Damien Smith peers inside
LIKE A SCAT OUT OF HELL
Brendan McAleer convenes two Scat Pack Dodges in Hells Gate, Canada, to give the V8 muscle car icons a suitably sizzling send-off
Slow but 'Shaw
For certain EV customers, range and speed scarcely matter, and what they do need is best provided by a small British company called Bradshaw.
"I want to know what they are whispering to their mechanics
Ford boss Jim Farley tells Steve Cropley why both he and the company will continue racing, what's next for Mustang and one thing that would lead to his instant dismissal
JEEP WRANGLER
Jeep updates its brand-defining macho 4x4 as it enjoys a surge in popularity
AUDI Q4 E-TRON
EV is now more potent and more efficient - but is something missing from UK spec?
MERCEDES-AMG CLE 53 COUPE
Extra 67bhp and dynamic upgrades for angrier-looking version of new two-door
MG 3
Cheap-as-chips supermini makes way for all-new hybrid aimed at bereft Fiesta fans
Urus now PHEV only - with 789bhp
Lamborghini's revised SUV drops pure petrol for a V8 hybrid with a 37-mile EV range