The Chances For Peace In Ukraine Are Slim

As the war nears its one year anniversary, both Kyiv and Moscow are preparing for more and bloodier fighting and betting they can win more on the battlefield than at the negotiating table

- David Brennan

NOW NEARING ITS ONE YEAR anniversary, there appears to be little hope Russia's invasion of Ukraine, itself the latest phase of an 8-year conflict, will end any time soon.

Peace negotiations began within days of the February 24 invasion but were undermined from the start by wildly different demands, espionage and battlefield developments. By April, talks had collapsed, with Kyiv increasingly outraged by emerging evidence of Russian atrocities in parts of occupied Ukraine.

Both Kyiv and Moscow acknowledge that a negotiated settlement will likely be needed to end the conflict. But the two sides appear to be living in different, contradictory, realities. Ukraine is demanding the full withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory per its 1991 borders, reparations, war crimes prosecutions for Russian leaders and NATO membership. Russia is demanding international recognition of its claimed annexation of four partially occupied Ukrainian territories and is still vowing to "demilitarize" and "de-Nazify" Ukraine.

Ukraine hopes that its recently proposed 10-point peace plan and a United Nations-hosted peace summit in February-both Kremlin-will rejected by the win over its key foreign partners and form a framework for eventual negotiations.

But with both sides expected to launch new offensives in the coming months, fresh talks appear a distant prospect. Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and now president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, says "We're in for a very long war."

In Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volydmyr Zelensky has said he is open to "genuine" talks with Russia's President Vladimir Putin. But Mykhailo Podolyak, a close adviser to Zelensky, said in December that Putin "needs to come back to reality... Russia doesn't want negotiations, but tries to avoid responsibility."