NOT QUITE OVER YET

THE ONSET OF WINTER AND A LAX ENFORCEMENT OF COVID PROTOCOLS COULD USHER IN A SECOND COVID WAVE. INDIA NEEDS TO TAKE HEED

- SONALI ACHARJEE

On October 26, India recorded 45,000 new daily cases, the lowest in three months. Maharashtra, the worst-hit state, recorded 6,417 cases on October 24, a decline of 66 per cent from its peak in September. Mumbai’s daily new cases fell to below 1,000 for the first time in two months on October 27. Simultaneously, other Covid parameters in India are showing improvement: the recovery rate is 90 per cent, the case fatality ratio 1.5 and the doubling rate 97.2 days.

All this has led to the perception that perhaps the worst is behind us, that has touched the Covid peak, we are now on a declining curve. Some have attributed this to the increased testing capacity of various states—from just one laboratory for Covid testing in March to 1,889 labs currently and over 80 million tests to date. “Quick diagnosis means that infected individuals can isolate before they infect a second person,” says Dr. Ajay Goenka, director of the Chirayu Hospital in Bhopal. “It also means that treatment can be started before the symptoms turn serious.” Others believe mandatory mask usage and improved contact tracing have helped reduce numbers. In states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Delhi, the police have been governing mask usage in public spaces. “I feel the paranoia of the initial months has been replaced by awareness and knowledge. Even though some people do not follow rules, many still do,” says Dr Avinash Kothade, a Kolkata-based ENT specialist.

Yet, the onset of winter, the festive season, and rising pollution levels are expected to fuel the second surge in Covid. Already states such as West Bengal, Delhi, and Kerala are defying the national trend and seeing a rise in cases. Delhi’s daily Covid count was upward of 4,000 in the past week.