‘Regional lockdowns would have been better'

Interview with Dr Naman Shah, infectious disease epidemiologist.

- T.K. RAJALAKSHMI

DR NAMAN SHAH, M.D., PHD, IS A FAMILY medicine physician and infectious disease epidemiologist at Jan Swasthya Sahyog (JSS), a community-based health system in rural Chhattisgarh. He has worked in the areas of pandemic influenza planning, disease-control research and programme management with health departments, the Indian Council of Medical Research and the World Health Organisation. Speaking to Frontline on the COVID-19 outbreak (SARS-COV-2) in India and the aspects that need to be prioritised, including health preparedness, Dr Shah believes that cases will grow exponentially in India and that there is an acute need to centre-stage institutions such as the National Centre for Disease Control which was set up for research in epidemiology and the control of communicable diseases. Excerpts from his interview:

While the COVID-19 outbreak has been a wake-up call for public health systems all over the world, it has affected the developed world more than the developing countries. Are there any epidemiological lessons in this? Or is the worst yet to come?

The outbreak is indeed a wake-up call. At a time when social and international relations feel increasingly fractured, I’ve found it amazing that colleagues all across the world are preparing for, or responding to, the same disease now. Cases appear higher in developed countries, but that is a function of their higher international connectivity—as imported cases drive the epidemic in the early stage—and their increased testing. Our worst is yet to come; cases are growing exponentially and we now have virus transmission that is community-based rather than related to travel. We’ll be able to make more meaningful comparisons with time.