Budget 2017: How To Revive The Economy!

BT's panel of experts discusses the priorities for Arun Jaitley while framing the Budget

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As Finance Minister Arun Jaitley readies the fourth Budget of Narendra Modi-led NDA government, the single most important economic disruption that he needs to consider is the government’s decision to demonetise 86 percent of India’s currency in November last year. Anecdotal ev idence suggests that the surprise move to reduce the availability of cash in the economy has badly hit the informal sector that accounts for about half of India’s $ 2 trillion GDP and employs almost 80 percent of the country’s workforce. An economic slowdown, even if temporary, is majority forecast. Statistical proof is yet to back up anecdotal evidence, but the ruling front, which is well into the third of its five year term and faces five state elections including one in India’s most populous state Uttar Pradesh in weeks from now can hardly take any chances. Hence, it was only natural that demonetisation, and possible budgetary interventions to mitigate its negative fallouts, dominated the pre-budget panel discussion hosted by Business Today. The discussants, including BT Editor Prosenjit Datta, the moderator, and six economic and political stalwarts – Shubhashis Gangopadhyay, Research Director, India Development Foundation; D.K. Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor at Ernst & Young; D.K. Joshi, Chief Economist, Crisil; Mukesh Bhutani, Non Executive Chairman and Managing Partner BMR Legal; Abhijit Sen, former Planning Commission member and Bhupender Yadav, Rajya Sabha MP, BJP – were near unanimous in their opinion that Union Budget 2017/18, to be presented on February 1, 2017, will have the “demonetisation” imprint all over. Excerpts:

Prosenjit Datta:What do the macroeconomic numbers presented so far by India’s Chief Statistician T.C.A. Anant tell us about the Indian economy?