Low Rainfall May Support Maize Prices Into 2019

South Africa’s stocks of white and yellow maize are at a high, putting pressure on prices. But an anticipated El Niño event could result in lower-than-average rainfall, leading to reduced plantings or crop losses, lower supply and higher local prices.

- Conce Moraba

While South Africa is expected to produce 13,2 million tons of maize this season, this is still below the 16,8 million tons produced the previous season, of which a surplus remains. Due to lower export demand driven by intense global competition, the South African maize market is currently characterised by high stock levels, high production levels and lower prices for farmers.

While South Africa’s white and yellow maize stocks remain high, they have declined from the corresponding period last year. At the end of June, white maize stock levels stood at 2,81 million tons, according to the South African Grain Information Service. This is well below the 4,1 million tons seen last year. Yellow maize stock levels were reported at 2,7 million tons, also well below the 3,3 million tons reported last year. The white and yellow maize currently available is enough for five months’ consumption. However, steady deliveries are expected to reach silos in August due to an increase in harvest momentum, which will make up for the lacklustre deliveries experienced thus far this season.