How devastating the 2026 Senedd election could be for Welsh Labour

WELSH Labour is projected to have its worst-ever Senedd election result next May.

- Rob Browne

If the latest polling proves right, it would mean the party is on course to take as few as 11 seats in the new-look Welsh Parliament from next May.

The explosive YouGov poll, released on Tuesday, has shown that Plaid Cymru and Reform UK would top the poll, with Plaid Cymru getting 30% of the vote and Reform UK close behind with 29%. Labour would be a distant third with 14%.

Under the new electoral system, it's harder to predict exactly what that means in terms of seats, as there are many changes coming into force ahead of the Senedd election, not least constituencies changing.

However, there are two projection models which give an idea about how the percentages of votes would translate into seats.

The Cavendish projection model

The first, by consultancy firm Cavendish, projects Reform and Plaid would be evenly matched on 36 seats each and Labour would take 12 seats in the following constituencies.