SPECULATION OVER POSSIBLE DELAY IN CABINET RESHUFFLE

Auspicious timings, elections and Parliament session may delay restructuring plans.

- AJIT MAINDOLA

The shadow of Chaturmas, the four-month holy period in the Hindu calendar, is looming over the much-anticipated restructuring of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's team.

While intense speculation persists that the Prime Minister may reshuffle his Cabinet between June 30 and July 6, if it does not happen during this period, the next likely window would be between July 1 and July 24. However, the timing will also be influenced by Parliament’s Winter Session. If changes to the Modi team do not materialise during the remaining days of July, the exercise could be postponed until the New Year.

There are several reasons behind the possibility of such a delay. The first is the commencement of Chaturmas on July 25, a four-month period that lasts until November 20, and during which no auspicious activities are traditionally undertaken. The BJP, regarded as a pro-Hindu party, has historically made major announcements during auspicious periods, and its past decisions reflect a clear preference for favourable timings.

The second reason relates to the upcoming Assembly elections in five states, including Uttar Pradesh. Elections could potentially be held in December, ahead of schedule, because of the Ardh Kumbh in Uttarakhand, scheduled for January, and the second phase of the caste census in February. This means that elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur could all take place in December. Since a Cabinet expansion cannot be undertaken during an election period, the political calendar significantly narrows the available window.