Japanese election results in smaller parties as kingmakers

The DPFP and Ishin with respectively 28 and 38 seats in the Japanese Parliament hold the cards for making either the previous ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba or the Opposition led by Mr Yoshihiko Noda as the next PM.

- SUNIL CHACKO

The Japanese House of Representatives (Lower House) Parliamentary election on 27 October 2024 resulted in two smaller political parties becoming king-makers in the new Parliament (The Diet) as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its partner Komeito lost majority in the 465-member House of Representatives. The Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) with respectively 28 and 38 seats in the Japanese Parliament hold the cards for making either the previous ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba or the Opposition led by Mr Yoshihiko Noda as the next PM.

The two smaller parties could make either of them PM as the difference in number of seats is not large between the two sides.

Such a scenario has rarely happened in Japan and signals a period of instability or a maturing of Japanese democracy or even a mix of the two perspectives.

What is refreshing is that perhaps the era of business-asusual is over.

DPFP President Mr Tamaki opined that joining with Mr Noda and his Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) might weaken national security-thereby signalling the likely plan of DPFP to provide policy-based support to PM Shigeru Ishiba from outside the government, at present. There is speculation that DPFP may formally join the ruling coalition at some point in the future. DPFP is seeking to monetize its priorities in the supplementary budget for this fiscal year and the fiscal 2025 annual budget.

PM Ishiba has long been in the political wilderness especially in the era of the late PM Shinzo Abe, but commands a significantly large support base. However, the haste with which he called a general election (reportedly on the advice of LDP Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama) before dealing with or even explaining a funds scandal that has plagued the LDP, caused much confusion.