It's India's moment as globalization witnesses a new dawn

As Trump's protectionism threatens to unravel decades of global integration, India stands at a crossroads. It can seize this moment to redefine globalization and cement its role as a global leader.

- RAJESH MEHTA & NIKHIL KALIA

Donald Trump's return to the White House portends a dismal future for globalization. His bold tariff promises—up to 20% on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods, now compounded by his freshly enacted 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum—has ignited market jitters, threatening a global economic slowdown.

Trump's recent refusal to dismiss a U.S. recession, citing a transitional period before his policies take effect, amplifies the unease. For India, this upheaval represents both a disruption and an opportunity.

Post-World War II institutions fostered economic interdependence that transformed the world in two ways. First, it subdued conflicts, as wars disrupted trade. Patrick J. McDonald, a Texas University professor, has shown that from 1960 to 2000, a country in the bottom 10 percent for protectionism was 70 percent less likely to engage in conflict than one in the top 10 percent. Second, it lifted millions out of poverty, as seen after India's 1991 and China's 1978 market reforms. However, global trade has stalled, with the past five years marking the weakest growth since the 1990s. The influence of multilateral institutions such as WTO—whose appellate body has been in a limbo since 2019—has waned.

Trump's protectionism accelerates this decline.